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After all the preseason hubbub about John Calipari’s next chapter, any discussion about who is in line to make the NCAA men’s basketball tournament’s field of 68 has to include this question: Where is Arkansas?
Besides, of course, at the bottom of the SEC standings and off to its worst start in league play since 1985-86.
The Razorbacks, reeling from Eric Musselman’s departure to Southern California after a 16-17 season, made an attention-grabbing move in April when they hired Calipari away from Kentucky. With the new coach, his staff and a revamped roster, Arkansas invested heavily in the hopes of stacking Final Four trips.
It was a convenient and lucrative landing spot for Calipari, a Hall of Famer who churned out first-round NBA draft picks in Lexington but hadn’t made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019.
Now, making it to the first weekend would be a welcome development.
The Razorbacks (11-7) played three prominent nonconference games on neutral courts, losing to Baylor in Dallas and Illinois in Kansas City, Missouri, before picking off Michigan in New York. They otherwise did what they should have before SEC play.
This month, however, the Hogs are 0-5, joined in the SEC cellar by South Carolina. Losing to Tennessee, Mississippi and Florida to open was tough but not outlandish. But getting swept at LSU and Missouri last week puts Arkansas and Calipari in a hole that will be tough to claw out of in the next two months.
Tough but not impossible - assuming the Razorbacks can summon far more offensive efficiency, something that’s been glaringly absent against conference opponents.
Chalk some of it up to Florida Atlantic transfer Johnell Davis - twice a first team all-league pick with the Owls - struggling since returning from a wrist injury. That’s undoubtedly something the Hogs weren’t counting on.
But it’s mainly because the Razorbacks as a whole have shot poorly, done a lousy job of getting to the foul line (an ongoing issue from Calipari’s final years at Kentucky) and failed to be much of a presence on the offensive glass (a rarity for a Calipari team before last season).
If there is hope in Fayetteville, it is provided by the bounty of opportunities. Even now, Arkansas remains a two-game winning streak away from having a case for postseason inclusion.
With the SEC’s depth, it cuts the other way, too. If the Razorbacks fall at home to Georgia and Oklahoma this week, the task to be relevant at any point beyond a Feb. 1 visit to Kentucky (let alone sometime in March) will grow much more challenging. That certainly wasn’t what Arkansas had in mind when it landed Calipari last spring.
Here is our weekly bracket projection for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:
Field notes
Last four included: Central Florida, Nebraska, Drake, Indiana
First four on the outside: Xavier, New Mexico, Ohio State, Texas
Next four on the outside: Northwestern, Cincinnati, Penn State, Wake Forest
Moving in: College of Charleston, Drake, Indiana, Middle Tennessee, Quinnipiac, UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro, Vanderbilt, VCU
Moving out: Arizona State, High Point, Merrimack, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Ohio State, Saint Louis, Samford, William & Mary
Conference call: SEC (12), Big Ten (10), Big 12 (8), ACC (5), Big East (4), Missouri Valley (2), Mountain West (2), West Coast (2)
Bracket projection: South vs. West, Midwest vs. East
South Region
Lexington, Ky.
(1) SEC/Auburn vs. (16) PATRIOT/Colgate-NORTHEAST/Long Island winner
(8) Clemson vs. (9) Baylor
Providence, R.I.
(5) Illinois vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/VCU
(4) Mississippi vs. (13) IVY/Yale
Milwaukee
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) CAA/College of Charleston
(6) St. John’s vs. (11) Central Florida-Indiana winner
Cleveland
(7) Arizona vs. (10) Vanderbilt
(2) BIG TEN/Michigan State vs. (15) MAAC/Quinnipiac
Clemson won’t enjoy too many more Quadrant 1 opportunities, so picking off Pittsburgh on the road in overtime on Saturday was helpful for the Tigers. They entered Monday between 22nd and 34th in the seven team sheet metrics - solidly in the field. … VCU doesn’t have a Quad 1 victory, and opportunities will be in short supply. The Rams must stack a hefty number of victories to have any chance at an at-large berth.
When Indiana is bad, it is really bad; all five of its losses have come by 15 points or more. But the Hoosiers rank in the top 40 in all three results-based metrics, and somebody has to fill out the field. Friday’s victory at Ohio State nudges them in, for now. … Maybe Vanderbilt’s nonconference strength of schedule (No. 331) bites it come March, but the Commodores are now 15-3 under first-year coach Mark Byington and just picked off Tennessee. They enter the field as the 12th(!) team out of the SEC.
West Region
Milwaukee
(1) Iowa State vs. (16) SWAC/Southern
(8) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (9) Pittsburgh
Denver
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) MISSOURI VALLEY/Bradley
(4) Mississippi State vs. (13) SUN BELT/South Alabama
Providence, R.I.
(3) Purdue vs. (14) MAC/Akron
(6) Connecticut vs. (11) BIG WEST/UC Irvine
Raleigh, N.C.
(7) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/Memphis vs. (10) WEST COAST/Saint Mary’s
(2) Florida vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/UNC Asheville
Pittsburgh has lost four in a row, though three of the defeats (Duke, Louisville and Clemson) came against projected tournament teams. The Panthers get four of their next six on the road, and their schedule doesn’t really turn mild until mid-February. … Both of these things can be true simultaneously: Bradley will be a hard sell as an at-large possibility if it comes to that (the Braves haven’t played a Quad 1 game) and it will probably be a handful for a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in a first-round game if it gets in. …
Purdue-Connecticut in a possible rematch of last year’s national title game, only in this year’s second round? Why not? … Whether it’s Florida or Tennessee or Alabama or maybe someone else, it sure looks like an SEC team will be headed to Raleigh for a subregional. There are too many excellent SEC profiles and too few geographically friendly destinations for the league beyond Lexington (though sending Kentucky to Milwaukee or Cleveland isn’t an onerous travel demand).
East Region
Raleigh, N.C.
(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) MEAC/Howard-OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State winner
(8) Georgia vs. (9) UCLA
Seattle
(5) West Virginia vs. (12) ATLANTIC SUN/Lipscomb
(4) Michigan vs. (13) CONFERENCE USA/Middle Tennessee
Denver
(3) Kansas vs. (14) WAC/Utah Valley
(6) Missouri vs. (11) North Carolina
Cleveland
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Maryland
(2) Alabama vs. (15) AMERICA EAST/Bryant
Duke keeps clobbering the rest of the ACC, winning all but one of its eight conference games to date by double figures. Saturday could be one of its trickiest games, against a Wake Forest bunch playing well and in need of a high-profile victory. … West Virginia got an enviable split last week, losing at Houston before upending Iowa State in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have flipped things in a hurry under first-year coach Darian DeVries. …
Another team that has transformed itself is Missouri, which has ping-ponged from 25-10 to 8-24 to now 15-3 after winning at Florida and dispatching Arkansas last week. The triumph in Gainesville was especially critical; it’s the first time the Tigers have won away from home all season. … Gonzaga dropped games to Oregon State and Santa Clara in a three-day span, the first time it lost consecutive games to WCC opponents since February 2014. The Bulldogs slipped a couple of seed lines in this week’s projection.
Midwest Region
Wichita
(1) BIG 12/Houston vs. (16) SUMMIT/Omaha
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Oklahoma
Seattle
(5) Texas A&M vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State
(4) Oregon vs. (13) SOUTHERN/UNC Greensboro
Wichita
(3) BIG EAST/Marquette vs. (14) BIG SKY/Northern Colorado
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Drake-Nebraska winner
Lexington, Ky.
(7) Texas Tech vs. (10) San Diego State
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) HORIZON/Cleveland State
Creighton fares worse in the NET than any other team sheet metric, and it now has a victory at Connecticut to go with home defeats of Kansas and St. John’s and no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses. The Bluejays have solidified their postseason position and still have room to grow. … Result-based metrics like Oregon much more than predictive formulas, a function of the Ducks both winning close games (all seven of their Quad 1 victories have come by 10 points or fewer) and getting demolished at home by 32 against Illinois. …
Louisville is 7-1 in the ACC; the Cardinals were 7-49 in their past 56 ACC regular season games coming into this season. Not really a bracket-relevant stat, but still seems worth mentioning. … Nebraska has dropped four in a row but isn’t playing poorly; it had a chance late to win three of those. At the same time, the Cornhuskers’ victory at Creighton is only going to carry them so far. They’re dangling near the edge of the field.